Human performance modelling as an aid in the process of manufacturing system design

Manufacturing system design is an ongoing activity within industry. Modelling tools based on Discrete Event Simulation are often used by practitioners during this design cycle. However, such tools do not adequately model the behaviour of 'direct' workers in manufacturing environments. There is an important need to expand the capability of modelling to include the relationships between human centred factors (demography, attitudes, beliefs, etc), their working environment (physical and organizational), and their subsequent performance in terms of productive routines. Therefore, this paper describes research that has formed a pilot modelling methodology that is an important first step in providing such a capability.

Modelling Apoptotic cell clearance within the atherosclerotic plaque

The aged population have an increased susceptibility to infection, therefore function of the innate immune system may be impaired as we age. Macrophages, and their precursors monocytes, play an important role in host defence in the form of phagocytosis, and also link the innate and adaptive immune system via antigen presentation. Classically-activated 'M1' macrophages are pro-inflammatory, which can be induced by encountering pathogenic material or pro-inflammatory mediators. Alternatively activated 'M2' macrophages have a largely reparative role, including clearance of apoptotic bodies and debris from tissues. Despite some innate immune receptors being implicated in the clearance of apoptotic cells, the process has been observed to have a dominant anti-inflammatory phenotype with cytokines such as IL-10 and TGF-ß being implicated. The atherosclerotic plaque contains recruited monocytes and macrophages, and is a highly inflammatory environment despite high levels of apoptosis. At these sites, monocytes differentiate into macrophages and gorge on lipoproteins, resulting in formation of 'foam cells' which then undergo apoptosis, recruiting further monocytes. This project seeks to understand why, given high levels of apoptosis, the plaque is a pro-inflammatory environment. This phenomenon may be the result of the aged environment or an inability of foam cells to elicit an anti-inflammatory effect in response to dying cells. Here we demonstrate that lipoprotein treatment of macrophages in culture results in reduced capacity to clear apoptotic cells. The effect of lipoprotein treatment on apoptotic cell-mediated immune modulation of macrophage function is currently under study.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.

Modelling human performance within manufacturing systems design:from a theoretical towards a practical framework

Computer-based simulation is frequently used to evaluate the capabilities of proposed manufacturing system designs. Unfortunately, the real systems are often found to perform quite differently from simulation predictions and one possible reason for this is an over-simplistic representation of workers' behaviour within current simulation techniques. The accuracy of design predictions could be improved through a modelling tool that integrates with computer-based simulation and incorporates the factors and relationships that determine workers' performance. This paper explores the viability of developing a similar tool based on our previously published theoretical modelling framework. It focuses on evolving this purely theoretical framework towards a practical modelling tool that can actually be used to expand the capabilities of current simulation techniques. Based on an industrial study, the paper investigates how the theoretical framework works in practice, analyses strengths and weaknesses in its formulation, and proposes developments that can contribute towards enabling human performance modelling in a practical way.

Towards a theoretical framework for human performance modelling within manufacturing systems design

The performance of direct workers has a significant impact on the competitiveness of many manufacturing systems. Unfortunately, system designers are ill equipped to assess this impact during the design process. An opportunity exists to assist designers by expanding the capabilities of popular simulation modelling tools, and using them as a vehicle to better consider human factors during the process of system design manufacture. To support this requirement, this paper reports on an extensive review of literature that develops a theoretical framework, which summarizes the principal factors and relationships that such a modelling tool should incorporate.

The definition, theoretical modelling and empirical research of front-line service employee corporate identity within a UK national grocery retailer:determining the FLE corporate brand identification construct

Over the past forty years the corporate identity literature has developed to a point of maturity where it currently contains many definitions and models of the corporate identity construct at the organisational level. The literature has evolved by developing models of corporate identity or in considering corporate identity in relation to new and developing themes, e.g. corporate social responsibility. It has evolved into a multidisciplinary domain recently incorporating constructs from other literature to further its development. However, the literature has a number of limitations. It remains that an overarching and universally accepted definition of corporate identity is elusive, potentially leaving the construct with a lack of clear definition. Only a few corporate identity definitions and models, at the corporate level, have been empirically tested. The corporate identity construct is overwhelmingly defined and theoretically constructed at the corporate level, leaving the literature without a detailed understanding of its influence at an individual stakeholder level. Front-line service employees (FLEs), form a component in a number of corporate identity models developed at the organisational level. FLEs deliver the services of an organisation to its customers, as well as represent the organisation by communicating and transporting its core defining characteristics to customers through continual customer contact and interaction. This person-to-person contact between an FLE and the customer is termed a service encounter, where service encounters influence a customer’s perception of both the service delivered and the associated level of service quality. Therefore this study for the first time defines, theoretically models and empirically tests corporate identity at the individual FLE level, termed FLE corporate identity. The study uses the services marketing literature to characterise an FLE’s operating environment, arriving at five potential dimensions to the FLE corporate identity construct. These are scrutinised against existing corporate identity definitions and models to arrive at a definition for the construct. In reviewing the corporate identity, services marketing, branding and organisational psychology literature, a theoretical model is developed for FLE corporate identity, which is empirically and quantitatively tested, with FLEs in seven stores of a major national retailer. Following rigorous construct reliability and validity testing, the 601 usable responses are used to estimate a confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation model for the study. The results for the individual hypotheses and the structural model are very encouraging, as they fit the data well and support a definition of FLE corporate identity. This study makes contributions to the branding, services marketing and organisational psychology literature, but its principal contribution is to extend the corporate identity literature into a new area of discourse and research, that of FLE corporate identity

Modelling the growth of prion protein aggregates in the brain in variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

Deposition of insoluble prion protein (PrP) in the brain in the form of protein aggregates or deposits is characteristic of the ‘transmissible spongiform encephalopathies’ (TSEs). Understanding the growth and development of these PrP aggregates is important both in attempting to the elucidate of the pathogenesis of prion disease and in the development of treatments designed to prevent or inhibit the spread of prion pathology within the brain. Aggregation and disaggregation of proteins and the diffusion of substances into the developing aggregates (surface diffusion) are important factors in the development of protein aggregates. Mathematical models suggest that if aggregation/disaggregation or surface diffusion is the predominant factor, the size frequency distribution of the resulting protein aggregates in the brain should be described by either a power-law or a log-normal model respectively. This study tested this hypothesis for two different types of PrP deposit, viz., the diffuse and florid-type PrP deposits in patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). The size distributions of the florid and diffuse plaques were fitted by a power-law function in 100% and 42% of brain areas studied respectively. By contrast, the size distributions of both types of plaque deviated significantly from a log-normal model in all brain areas. Hence, protein aggregation and disaggregation may be the predominant factor in the development of the florid plaques. A more complex combination of factors appears to be involved in the pathogenesis of the diffuse plaques. These results may be useful in the design of treatments to inhibit the development of protein aggregates in vCJD.

Modelling the dynamics of genetic algorithms using statistical mechanics

A formalism for modelling the dynamics of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) using methods from statistical mechanics, originally due to Prugel-Bennett and Shapiro, is reviewed, generalized and improved upon. This formalism can be used to predict the averaged trajectory of macroscopic statistics describing the GA's population. These macroscopics are chosen to average well between runs, so that fluctuations from mean behaviour can often be neglected. Where necessary, non-trivial terms are determined by assuming maximum entropy with constraints on known macroscopics. Problems of realistic size are described in compact form and finite population effects are included, often proving to be of fundamental importance. The macroscopics used here are cumulants of an appropriate quantity within the population and the mean correlation (Hamming distance) within the population. Including the correlation as an explicit macroscopic provides a significant improvement over the original formulation. The formalism is applied to a number of simple optimization problems in order to determine its predictive power and to gain insight into GA dynamics. Problems which are most amenable to analysis come from the class where alleles within the genotype contribute additively to the phenotype. This class can be treated with some generality, including problems with inhomogeneous contributions from each site, non-linear or noisy fitness measures, simple diploid representations and temporally varying fitness. The results can also be applied to a simple learning problem, generalization in a binary perceptron, and a limit is identified for which the optimal training batch size can be determined for this problem. The theory is compared to averaged results from a real GA in each case, showing excellent agreement if the maximum entropy principle holds. Some situations where this approximation brakes down are identified. In order to fully test the formalism, an attempt is made on the strong sc np-hard problem of storing random patterns in a binary perceptron. Here, the relationship between the genotype and phenotype (training error) is strongly non-linear. Mutation is modelled under the assumption that perceptron configurations are typical of perceptrons with a given training error. Unfortunately, this assumption does not provide a good approximation in general. It is conjectured that perceptron configurations would have to be constrained by other statistics in order to accurately model mutation for this problem. Issues arising from this study are discussed in conclusion and some possible areas of further research are outlined.

Requirements for modelling e-business processes

Companies must not see e-Business as a panacea but instead assess the specific impact of implementing e-Business on their business from both an internal and external perspective. E-Business is promoted as being able to increase the speed of response and reduce costs locally but these benefits must be assessed for the wider business rather than as local improvements. This paper argues that any assessment must include quantitative analysis that covers the physical as well as the information flows within a business. It is noted that as business processes are e-enabled their structure does not significantly change and it is only by the use of modelling techniques that the operational impact can be ascertained. The paper reviews techniques that are appropriate for this type of analysis as well as specific modelling tools and applications. Through this review a set of requirements for e-Business process modelling is derived.

Modelling and improving human decision making with simulation

Modelling human interaction and decision-making within a simulation presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a methodology that is being developed known as 'knowledge based improvement'. The purpose of this methodology is to elicit decision-making strategies via a simulation model and to represent them using artificial intelligence techniques. Further to this, having identified an individual's decision-making strategy, the methodology aims to look for improvements in decision-making. The methodology is being tested on unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford engine assembly plant

An application of decision process modelling to manufacturing system design

As levels of investment in advanced manufacturing systems increase, effective project management becomes ever more critical. This paper demonstrates how the model proposed by Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Theoret in 1976, which structures complicated strategic decision processes, can be applied to the design of new production systems for both descriptive and analytical research purposes. This paper sets a detailed case study concerning the design and development of an advanced manufacturing system within the Mintzberg decision model and so breaks down the decision sequence into constituent parts. It thus shows how a structured model can provide a framework for the researcher who wishes to study decision episodes in the design of manufacturing facilities in greater depth.

A study of business user based information systems development, and modelling success factors

This thesis describes research into business user involvement in the information systems application building process. The main interest of this research is in establishing and testing techniques to quantify the relationships between identified success factors and the outcome effectiveness of 'business user development' (BUD). The availability of a mechanism to measure the levels of the success factors, and quantifiably relate them to outcome effectiveness, is important in that it provides an organisation with the capability to predict and monitor effects on BUD outcome effectiveness. This is particularly important in an era where BUD levels have risen dramatically, user centred information systems development benefits are recognised as significant, and awareness of the risks of uncontrolled BUD activity is becoming more widespread. This research targets the measurement and prediction of BUD success factors and implementation effectiveness for particular business users. A questionnaire instrument and analysis technique has been tested and developed which constitutes a tool for predicting and monitoring BUD outcome effectiveness, and is based on the BUDES (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope) research model - which is introduced and described in this thesis. The questionnaire instrument is designed for completion by 'business users' - the target community being more explicitly defined as 'people who primarily have a business role within an organisation'. The instrument, named BUD ESP (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope Predictor), can readily be used with survey participants, and has been shown to give meaningful and representative results.

Modelling growth of prion protein aggregates in the brain in variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

Deposition of insoluble prion protein (PrP) in the brain in the form of protein aggregates or deposits is characteristic of the ‘transmissible spongiform encephalopathies’ (TSEs). Understanding the growth and development of PrP aggregates is important both in attempting to elucidate the pathogenesis of prion disease and in the development of treatments designed to inhibit the spread of prion pathology within the brain. Aggregation and disaggregation of proteins and the diffusion of substances into the developing aggregates (surface diffusion) are important factors in the development of protein deposits. Mathematical models suggest that if either aggregation/disaggregation or surface diffusion is the predominant factor, then the size frequency distribution of the resulting protein aggregates will be described by either a power-law or a log-normal model respectively. This study tested this hypothesis for two different populations of PrP deposit, viz., the diffuse and florid-type PrP deposits characteristic of patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). The size distributions of the florid and diffuse deposits were fitted by a power-law function in 100% and 42% of brain areas studied respectively. By contrast, the size distributions of both types of aggregate deviated significantly from a log-normal model in all areas. Hence, protein aggregation and disaggregation may be the predominant factor in the development of the florid deposits. A more complex combination of factors appears to be involved in the pathogenesis of the diffuse deposits. These results may be useful in the design of treatments to inhibit the development of PrP aggregates in vCJD.